Transparency report

Macro Lens is built on a single promise: the read is reproducible from public data, and when we get something wrong we say so in public. This page is the standing record of that promise. It is updated once a quarter with the operational facts — how reliably the engine ran, how much of the output a human reviewed, what we corrected, and how the methodology changed.

Numeric operational metrics below are populated from the pipeline's own logs at the close of each quarter. Where a figure reads "reporting begins Q3 2026," the measurement window opened with this inaugural report and the first full-quarter number will appear in the next update. We do not publish a number we cannot substantiate from the logs.

Reliability

• Briefs published on schedule: reporting begins Q3 2026.
• Pipeline uptime (daily run completed): reporting begins Q3 2026.

Human oversight

• Founder-Reviewed briefs: reporting begins Q3 2026.
• Every brief carries a visible review status; the quarterly figure is the share marked Founder-Reviewed before send.

Corrections issued

We log every correction here permanently, newest first.

• July 2026 — Oil supply-shock sensor (inaugural entry). For a period ending in July 2026, the oil supply-shock sensor labelled an ordinary Brent−WTI spread as compressed. The cause was not a calculation error — the engine always computed Brent minus WTI correctly — but a definition-and-calibration gap: at the time the sensor read the reproducible FRED spot series (DCOILBRENTEU − DCOILWTICO), while its state bands had been anchored to a ~$4 futures shipping-cost narrative rather than to the spot series' own distribution. Because that spot spread has a long-run median near zero, the old threshold sat almost exactly at the median and mislabelled routine readings. The bands were re-derived from the named series' own historical percentiles, the spread convention is pinned in one tested constant, the flip history was recomputed from source, and a daily plausibility monitor now checks the sensor's direction and freshness. Full detail is in the framework correction note.
• July 2026 — Oil sensors moved to live futures. A second, deeper gap: FRED relays EIA spot with about a week's lag, so the oil sensors were reading week-old data — structurally unfit for a "what changed today" board. Both now price off the front-month futures tape (ICE Brent BZ=F, NYMEX WTI CL=F, settled closes only), with FRED spot demoted to a lagged cross-check and fail-open fallback; the bands were re-anchored to the futures spread's recent distribution and the flip history recomputed on the new source. Detail in the framework note.

Methodology changes this quarter

• v2.1 — added the oil supply-shock sensor (Brent−WTI) as descriptive context in the Early Warning Signs group, and issued the correction above.
• The full version history lives on the framework page.

Sensor activity

• Regime flips this quarter: reporting begins Q3 2026.
• Flip history is recomputed from public data on every pipeline run.