Inflation expectations
T10YIE · One of the nine sensors MacroLens watches daily.
What it measures: What bond markets expect inflation to average over 10 years
How to read it: Contained = near the Fed's comfort zone; elevated = markets pricing persistent inflation
Why investors watch it: This is the bond market's forecast with real money behind it — when it escapes the comfort zone, everything from mortgages to Fed policy feels it
Currently contained — held 951 trading days. The bond market's 10-year inflation forecast has been near the Fed's comfort zone Last change: Sep 16, 2022.
What would flip this reading: This reading shifts to elevated if it crosses 2.40; today's reading is 2.23 — 0.17 percentage points away.
Flip history
| Date | Change | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2022 | elevated → contained | 2.38 |
| Aug 24, 2022 | contained → elevated | 2.62 |
| Jun 29, 2022 | elevated → contained | 2.36 |
| Feb 28, 2022 | contained → elevated | 2.62 |
| Jan 19, 2022 | elevated → contained | 2.40 |
| Jan 3, 2022 | contained → elevated | 2.60 |
| Dec 13, 2021 | elevated → contained | 2.40 |
| Oct 21, 2021 | contained → elevated | 2.64 |
| Nov 14, 2012 | elevated → contained | 2.40 |
| Sep 14, 2012 | contained → elevated | 2.64 |
| May 13, 2011 | elevated → contained | 2.39 |
| Apr 8, 2011 | contained → elevated | 2.64 |
| Sep 19, 2006 | elevated → contained | 2.39 |
| Mar 3, 2006 | contained → elevated | 2.61 |
| Nov 21, 2005 | elevated → contained | 2.38 |
| Nov 3, 2005 | contained → elevated | 2.62 |
| May 26, 2005 | elevated → contained | 2.39 |
| Nov 29, 2004 | contained → elevated | 2.60 |
| Aug 17, 2004 | elevated → contained | 2.39 |
| May 12, 2004 | contained → elevated | 2.66 |
History of state changes only — not a prediction, and not a claim about what followed. Data source: FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.