Yield curve (10Y−2Y)
T10Y2Y · One of the nine sensors MacroLens watches daily.
What it measures: Long-term vs. short-term interest rates
How to read it: Normal = long rates higher (healthy); inverted = short above long (markets bracing)
Why investors watch it: The most-watched recession sensor in finance — inversions have preceded most modern U.S. recessions, which is why its flips make headlines
Currently normal — held 458 trading days. Long-term rates above short-term — the configuration historically associated with ordinary conditions Last change: Sep 6, 2024.
What would flip this reading: This reading shifts to inverted if it crosses -0.05; today's reading is 0.38 — 0.43 percentage points away.
Flip history
| Date | Change | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2024 | inverted → normal | 0.06 |
| Jul 11, 2022 | normal → inverted | -0.08 |
| Apr 6, 2022 | inverted → normal | 0.11 |
| Apr 1, 2022 | normal → inverted | -0.05 |
| Jun 7, 2007 | inverted → normal | 0.08 |
| May 8, 2007 | normal → inverted | -0.05 |
| Mar 28, 2007 | inverted → normal | 0.09 |
| Jun 13, 2006 | normal → inverted | -0.05 |
| Apr 6, 2006 | inverted → normal | 0.06 |
| Mar 24, 2006 | normal → inverted | -0.05 |
| Mar 14, 2006 | inverted → normal | 0.05 |
| Feb 3, 2006 | normal → inverted | -0.05 |
| Jan 2, 2001 | inverted → normal | 0.05 |
| Feb 3, 2000 | normal → inverted | -0.07 |
| Jul 17, 1998 | inverted → normal | 0.05 |
| Jun 15, 1998 | normal → inverted | -0.05 |
| Apr 9, 1990 | inverted → normal | 0.05 |
| Mar 9, 1990 | normal → inverted | -0.08 |
| Nov 8, 1989 | inverted → normal | 0.09 |
| Nov 3, 1989 | normal → inverted | -0.05 |
| Oct 13, 1989 | inverted → normal | 0.18 |
| Aug 14, 1989 | normal → inverted | -0.07 |
| Jul 3, 1989 | inverted → normal | 0.07 |
| Jan 5, 1989 | normal → inverted | -0.05 |
| Jul 19, 1982 | inverted → normal | 0.16 |
| Jun 2, 1982 | normal → inverted | -0.09 |
| May 26, 1982 | inverted → normal | 0.06 |
| May 21, 1982 | normal → inverted | -0.05 |
| May 20, 1982 | inverted → normal | 0.05 |
| Jan 18, 1982 | normal → inverted | -0.08 |
| Nov 2, 1981 | inverted → normal | 0.13 |
| Sep 15, 1980 | normal → inverted | -0.17 |
| May 2, 1980 | inverted → normal | 0.20 |
| Aug 21, 1978 | normal → inverted | -0.06 |
History of state changes only — not a prediction, and not a claim about what followed. Data source: FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.